What do you guys think???-- anyone on the ground in Oaxaca?

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=winterOlympics&storyID=2006-10-10T201459Z_01_N09296188_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEXICO-OAXACA.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage3

Tentative deal to end Mexico's Oaxaca crisis
By Frank Jack Daniel

OAXACA, Mexico (Reuters) - Protest leaders seeking to topple a state governor have tentatively agreed to tear down some of their barricades in the tourist city of Oaxaca, easing fears of violence before a new Mexican president takes power.

After thousands of activists marched for days to Mexico City, the government and leaders said they made a deal late on Monday that could see protesters cede control of most of downtown Oaxaca to local police under federal supervision.

Leftist activists and striking teachers took control of the colonial center of Oaxaca four months ago, hoping to force out Gov. Ulises Ruiz, who they accuse of corruption, heavy-handed tactics, stealing an election and ignoring widespread poverty.

Activists have chased police from the picturesque town, set up dozens of roadblocks and taken control of government buildings. Half a dozen people have been killed in the conflict, most of them protesters.

Resolving the crisis has become the most pressing problem for outgoing President Vicente Fox, who is worried that instability in Oaxaca could cause problems for his successor, Felipe Calderon, who takes office on December 1.

The conservative Fox government has pledged to end the conflict and had warned it would use federal riot police to retake the city if talks failed.

Union leader Enrique Rueda said he would quickly consult strikers about removing most street barricades in the city and returning to classes but that they would continue to push Mexico's Senate to make Ruiz step down.

Ruiz belongs to a traditional wing of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled the country for 71 years until Fox's victory in 2000.  

"Since Ulises Ruiz Ortiz is still there, the conflict has not ended," Rueda said. Other leaders warned they would not totally give up control of the city unless Ruiz leaves office.

The Senate will decide in special sessions whether or not Ruiz has lost control of Oaxaca state and needs to step down.

Some of the teachers camped in Oaxaca City's central square said they were leased they could be returning to classes, but many were wary of backing down before Ruiz's resignation. "We don't agree with this, we don't want to go back to school until Ulises is out," said teacher Gladis Morales.

As part of the tentative agreement, the government agreed to release protesters jailed in recent months and to steadily raise teachers' pay in coming years.

Thousands of protesters walked the 280 miles from Oaxaca to Mexico City and plan to stay there until the Senate decides on Ruiz's future.

Ambushes and paramilitary-style drive-by shootings, which protesters say were ordered by Ruiz, have killed at least five activists since the conflict began.

A teacher opposed to the strike was murdered last week, his throat cut. Both sides deny responsibility for the attack

Oaxaca, popular with visitors for its beaches and Indian cultures, is also one of Mexico's poorest regions, with massive immigration to the United States from its remote villages.

The protests have left Oaxaca City scarred with graffiti and strewn with burned out cars, scaring away tourists who provide much of the city's income.

"We all want Ulises to go, but its time this was over," said waiter Marcelino Mases, as he stood outside an empty cafe.

(With additional reporting by Jennifer Szymaszek, Greg Brosnan and Noel Randewich)

This is from the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington DC.  They do a daily report on the happenings in Latin America and today's Q&A commentary from their board of advisors deals with Oaxaca.

Hopes for a quick end to five months of protests, roadblocks, and violence in the Mexican state of Oaxaca were dashed last week when protesting teachers rejected a proposal to allow police back into the state capital and held firm to their demand that state Governor Ulises Ruiz resign. Do you see the Oaxaca crisis being resolved anytime soon? Will the federal government be forced to resolve it?

Guest Comment: Rafael Fernandez de Castro: "... The conflict in Oaxaca needs greater international attention to be

resolved. Said in another way, international pressure is a key element for the government of Vicente Fox to play its cards and stop one of the most beautiful cities in Latin America—and also one of the most politically complicated states on the continent, Oaxaca—from continuing to deteriorate. The conflict in Oaxaca is like the cheese of that region: it has a lot of strands. That is, politics is a very complicated structure and Oaxacans take it very seriously. The current situation, originating with the protests by the teachers' union, is only a symptom of the great historic backwardness that has characterized Mexico's southern states. The social deficit, the poverty of indigenous communities, the demands of

workers in the country, and the hundreds of youths that have to keep migrating because of the lack of opportunities, are

only some of the factors that make up the backdrop of the Oaxacan stage. The political disputes have impeded a resolution of the conflict. It will be necessary to wait for the negotiations to be resolved and for Oaxaca not to become the unfinished task of Fox and the first burden for the government of Felipe Calderon." 

A Guest Comment: Armand Peschard-Sverdrup: "The conflict began in May as traditional labor negotiations broke down between the Oaxacan state government and a dissident local chapter (Section 22) of the National Education Workers Union (SNTE). In order to apply mounting political pressure on the state government and coerce them to concede, Section 22 took over the state capital's downtown plaza, among other pressure tactics. On June 14, Gov. Ruiz called in the state level riot police to forcibly remove the demonstrators. This futile attempt only served to further incite tensions and instantly transform this labor dispute into an out-and-out political dispute between Gov. Ruiz and all of his political enemies—beyond just Section 22. On June 22, Section 22 and about 350 social organizations aligned to form the

Popular Assembly of the Peoples of Oaxaca (APPO) and pronounced their joint, steadfast demand for Gov. Ruiz's

ouster. The resolution to this conflict is elusive, because of the complex political undercurrents as well as the presence of

radical elements both within Section 22 and the APPO who tend to favor conflict over compromise (some of whom, incidentally, have links to radical groups such as the EPR).About 4,000 Section 22 and APPO members have now descended on Mexico City to demand that the Senate abolish the state powers and remove Gov. Ruiz. Whatever outcome is ultimately pursued, it will likely encompass high-stakes political risk, as well as the risk of escalating violence. With the

Nov. 20 swearing-in of illegitimate president Lopez Obrador on the horizon, the Fox administration must be careful to

prevent that the two conflicts converge; particularly as we approach the Dec. 1swearing-in of the democratically elected

President-elect Felipe Calderon. At this stage, the use of force to impose law and order may be unavoidable. If so, it

would be best if such a politically difficult decision were made by outgoing President Fox, versus the incoming Calderon, who must not squander his political capital at the outset of his term on this brewing conflict, for it would be best expended on Mexico's pressing reform agenda."

A Guest Comment: Neil Harvey:

"The Oaxaca crisis can only be solved if Ulises Ruiz resigns.He brought on the crisis when he ordered police to attack the teachers' protest camp in June. Since then, he has refused to recognize his own responsibility for the worsening situation, and he has only been able to hang on to power because the federal government has refused to consider his resignation. The teachers have broad-based support in Oaxaca and are being attacked by armed police dressed as civilians. The decision is in the hands of the senators. The PRD wants Ruiz to resign. The PRI wants him to stay on and is calling for the use of force against the teachers and APPO. So the PAN senators have to decide what their party will stand for: unleashing more violence in order to prop up a very unpopular and politically weak governor, or open up the possibility for real dialogue by refusing to ally themselves with the PRI."